Chocolate, Cacao
South America
The slender equatorial cacao belt is likely to see higher temperatures and get drier, not a good combination for cacao plants.[1] West Africa has a long dry season that is getting drier, with annual rainfall predicted to decrease up to 30% over the second half of the twentieth century.[2] A severe drought in Bahia, Brazil, during the 2015-2016 growing season led to 15% of the cacao trees dying and almost a 90% decrease in yields.[3] Changes in the global temperature could help some destructive cacao diseases spread to other, previously unaffected areas.[4]
References:
[1] Michon Scott, “Climate and Chocolate, NOAA Climate.Gov,” February 10, 2016, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-and/climate-chocolate.[2] Götz Schroth et al., “Vulnerability to Climate Change of Cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, Opportunities and Limits to Adaptation,” Science of The Total Environment 556 (June 15, 2016), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.024.
[3] Lauranne et al., “Climate Change Could Threaten Cocoa Production: Effects of 2015-16 El Niño-Related Drought on Cocoa Agroforests in Bahia, Brazil,” PLOS ONE 13, no. 7 (July 10, 2018): e0200454, 1, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0200454.
[4] Sania Ortega Andrade, Grace Páez, Teresa Feria, and Jesús Muños, “Climate Change and the Risk of Spread of the Fungus from the High Mortality of Theobroma Cocoa in Latin America,” Neotropical Biodiversity 3, no. 1 (January 1, 2017), 30, https://doi.org/10.1080/23766808.2016.1266072.
